EU Climate Strategy Under Fire for Model's Lack of Transparency
The European Commission is under fire for its choice of model, PRIMES, in developing a mid-century climate strategy. Critics argue that the 'black box' model lacks transparency and accuracy, potentially leading to an unaffordable challenge in decarbonizing transport.
Transport & Environment's analysis of PRIMES revealed several shortcomings. The model fails to account for the potential of electric trucks, despite some already being on the market. It also underestimates emission reductions in the transport sector, attributing more reductions to buildings. Moreover, PRIMES suggests using fossil gas to reduce emissions in ships or trucks, a non-viable decarbonization option. The model's electric vehicle battery price projections are also higher than current market values.
The model's lack of transparency makes it difficult to ensure an accurate reflection of a sustainable transport sector. It does not consider sustainability constraints on biofuel production and expects unrealistic efficiency gains in aviation. Including incorrect assumptions in the 2050 strategy could make the challenge of decarbonizing transport seem unaffordable.
The EU aims to lead on renewable energy, smart solutions, and clean transport technologies to clean up its largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Commission's chosen model, PRIMES, may hinder this goal due to its lack of transparency and inaccurate projections. The EU must address these issues to ensure a realistic and affordable path to decarbonize its transport sector.
